*As of 30 June 2022. This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words believes, expects, may, or suggests, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Strong support/resistance levels are near the limits of those areas, and much effort is required to break them through. However, new waves of coronavirus, skyrocketing inflation, political tensions, and conflict destabilize the situation, so we have a reason to expect experts forecasts to come true - the price will continue to rise up to $2,100 per troy ounce in 2022, implying a 15% increase from current levels. Need to ask the author a question? The whole year will show stable growth. Get the most popular posts to your email. Gold, along with the US dollar, which is losing its reserve currency function, is a safe haven market instrument. The economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic continued, and increasing inflation expectations in April and May 2021 led to a lower price. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council, Inflation-linked bonds have unperformed y-t-d as rate increases have curtailed inflation-contributed gains, *As of 30 June 2022. It is at the highest rate in the US in the last forty years. Learn how your comment data is processed. 2021 saw several ups and downs in the price of gold. Inflation, pandemic risks, and geopolitical tensions led to the price of more than $1,900 per ounce. Terra Luna Price Prediction: $LUNA outlook turns Positive, Time to Buy the Terra Coin? The factors that will facilitate this include: The increase in inflationary expectations and the weakening of the US currency will result from generous fiscal and monetary stimulus. The price of gold didnt change much in August; however, there was a significant fall from August 6-9, which was caused by strong US job data. Gold price and annual return in key currencies*. While fundamental stock market analysts monitor certain companies' financial statements, gold market analysts monitor macroeconomic factors, political and economic world stability, and competition from investment alternatives to forecast prices. While many markets should continue to benefit from the post-COVID recovery, we expect widespread economic slowdown to pressure consumer demand for gold, particularly with many markets seeing notably higher local gold prices.

And this trend is likely to continue in the coming years, making gold a good investment. Bloomberg, Nevertheless, this year's yield on the precious metal was in the range of 16-30%. Especially considering that both equities and bonds, which usually make up the largest portion of investors portfolios, posted negative returns during the period. Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. This is twice as much as in 2009, at the height of the financial crisis. The rally continued in 2020. Check XAU/USD short-term forecasts and trading signals based on technical analysis in our blog! You will not see all the features of this website. Ethereum Price Prediction: Will Ethereum rise above $2000 this year? And our analysis shows that while gold has tend to lag during reflationary periods, it still has performed well and it has also significantly outperformed in stagflationary periods (Chart 7). The opening price in 2024 will be $2,305. Gold dropped by 4.7% to $1,774.80 per ounce on June 16, its lowest level since late April. Some profit-taking exacerbated the decline, and gold will rebuild from here. He was right - in May 2021, the price became $1,904.76. Editor-in-chief and the project manager of LiteFinance traders' blog, Id like to test my new skills on a demo account without registration, Show me currency charts and real time price moves, Id like to copy professional traders transactions onto my account, I'm ready to open a trading account and make money from Forex. Gold is best used as a safe investment in times when investors are terrified, and regional conflicts may well cause such conditions in the market. The prognosis for the coming months of the year is positive, and no strong declines are expected. Unexplained represents the percentage change in the gold price that is not explained by factors currently included in the model. Please consult a registered investment advisor to guide you on your financial decisions. It not only delivered positive returns, but it did so with below average volatility (Chart 3). Further, questions remain on the ability of bonds to provide the diversification that investors need. However, our analysis suggests that gold lags other commodities in commodity-led inflationary periods, and catches up and outperforms over the subsequent 12-18 months. High local inflation, uncertainty about the economic outlook and the surprise increase of the import duty for gold aimed in part to mitigate the impacts of rupee weakness will likely weigh on the recovery of gold consumer demand. Gold looked as if it was topping out, Ross Norman, Chief Executive Officer at Metals Daily, said. A weaker dollar makes gold relatively less expensive for foreign buyers and may lift prices. After falling below $1200 per ounce in 2018, gold rebounded sharply over the next 12 months, and a significant bullish trend began. However, in the long term, there is no strong correlation between inflation and gold prices. The maximum price forecast for 2027 is $3,794, and the minimum price forecast is $3,529. tight labour markets, causing concerns that wages/labour costs may rise further. The Bloomberg Global Inflation-linked Bond Index has declined 18% year-to-date (Chart 8). As new initiatives of the world's central banks and governments to support markets and economies were successfully implemented in 2021, the gold price may have shown a decline. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2019 and/or its affiliates. Model estimated using OLS, in levels, using data from Jan 2007 to June 2022. AAAR % annualised average (stagflation) adjusted returns. An academically validated methodology, GVF is based on the principle that the price of gold and its performance can be explained by the interaction of demand and supply. Number of observations for each tranche: Low = 12, Moderate = 27, High = 12. Move your mouse over a quarter or year to see how estimates have changed over time. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, Services). The main reason for this was a strong expectation for a new financial stimulus by the Fed to fight inflation.

Source: Bloomberg, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council, Both nominal and real interest rates are at or near historically low levels, *As of 30 June 2022. The final period of the forecast is March 2027; the price will reach $2,915,24. UBS recognizes the resilience of gold, which is largely due to an elevated demand for portfolio hedges, as well as the Fed's insufficient response towards inflation. You should not risk more than you are prepared to lose. The coronavirus pandemic and the unprecedented flow of money supply by government stimulus triggered sharp buying in the bullion metal in both domestic and global markets in 2020. The price hasnt remained in that area for long as the market is overbought. $2,233 will be the price at the beginning of 2024. Then, the price will grow till the beginning of September, when it becomes $3,328. CNN Sans & 2016 Cable News Network. The beginning of January will bring $2,661.61. However, regardless of gold's resilience, UBS does still expect gold to fall to $1,650-1,700/oz from July to December 2022, as a result of the ease of threats of the omicron variant, and reduced inflation. Previously, he considered precious metals a useless asset. Investors face a challenging environment during the second half of 2022, needing to navigate rising interest rates, high inflation and resurfacing geopolitical risks. The opening price in January will be $3,026. Gold has historically performed well amid high inflation. pic.twitter.com/NBwqz3DAxB, The average Gold Price Forecast 2022 is $2087. Source: Goldprice.org, the screenshot was taken on March 1, 2022. Even Warren Buffett changed his mind about gold. The US Fed increased rates by 50 basis points to curb inflation. This year, the economic fallout from the pandemic and negative bond yields have driven a record $60 billion in gold ETF capital growth. See Important information and disclosures at the end of this report. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. Overall, in January-March 2021, we could see a decline in the price of gold due to US employment figures going up. An increase in investment demand and a gradual recovery in consumer demand in China and India will support the precious metal rate at a high level. In the United States, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan, the figure rose 15.7% from February to September. I've calculated the expected trading range using Bollinger bands. "During periods of systemic risk, both gold and the dollar tend to be used as safe havens and may move in a similar direction," says Juan Carlos Artigas, Head of Research, World Gold Council. The gold price is highly volatile there and can fluctuate rapidly. Typically, traders associate fundamental analysis with the stock market, not gold. Risk Warning: Trading on financial markets carries risks. StopLoss: according to the pattern rules. The chart shows an inverse long-term relationship between the US dollar index (white line) and the dynamics of gold prices (yellow line). We believe that the geopolitical risk premium is also represented in the larger than normal unexplained element of our GRAM model in recent months, which has made a strong positive contribution to golds price performance in tandem with the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. No sharp falls are expected. The end of June will meet us with $2,775.48. The highest price will be set in September at $2,536. Real yield computed using US 10-year Treasury nominal yield minus seasonally adjusted US CPI y-o-y change. Investors will continue to fill the gap in demand. content: attr(data-name) "@" attr(data-domain) "." Shaded area denotes negative y-t-d returns. Interest level on Google Search for Gold is Lower than yesterday. Monetary policy uncertainty will likely ramp up volatility. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. We maintain a long-term positive view on gold in 2022-2030. I've marked five of them in the chart above: 1 Area of peak values: the red zone going from 2.618 to 3.618 as per Fibonacci ratios. Return and volatility computations for 'US bonds': Bloomberg US Agg Total Return Value Unhedged USD; 'EAFE equities': MSCI EAFE Gross Total Return USD Index; 'Gold (US$/oz)': LBMA Gold Price PM USD; 'EUR/USD': EURUSD Spot Exchange Rate - Price of 1 EUR in USD; 'Global bonds': Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD; 'Commodities (GSCI)': S&P GSCI Total Return CME; 'USD basket': Dollar Spot Index; 'Europe equities': MSCI Daily Gross TR Europe Euro; 'US equities': MSCI Daily TR Gross USA USD; 'Euro Treasuries': Bloomberg EuroAgg Treasury Total Return Index Value Unhedged EUR; 'REITs': Dow Jones US Select REIT Total Return Index. The closing price of the last day in December will be $2,260.67. Since the start of 2022, gold has gained about 5.2%, nearly reaching the highs of July 2020. Its also worth noting that, while most market participants still expect significant policy rate increases, some analysts argue that central banks may not tighten monetary policy as much as expected. At the end of June, the average price will be $2,379. The figure may reach 1,362 tons next year. In the near term, gold will likely remain reactive to real rates, driven by the speed at which global central banks tighten monetary policy in an effort to control inflation. For example, an often-used simple model based solely on US real rates and the dollar suggests that goldwould normally be significantly lower, contrasting with its actual marginally positive performance (Chart 2). Our short-term model is a multiple regression model of monthly gold price returns (based on XAU), which we group into the four key thematic driver categories of golds performance: economic expansion, market risk, opportunity cost, and momentum. The second one isin the buyers' activity zone, at 1690 USD. Golds status as the top hedging instrument against inflation is likely to push the prices further, reaching more than $2,000 per ounce. World Gold Council; Disclaimer. Please see Appendix A.2 for AAAR definition. GTBIF Stock Forecast: What to expect in Q2? The opening price in 2025 will be $2,464.95. China is especially susceptible to weakness as the government pursues its zero-COVID policy, with possible mobility restrictions which cast a shadow over future growth. *As of 30 June 2022. The price will go up all the way till December. content: attr(data-name) "@" attr(data-domain) "." I've marked five areas on the XAUUSD's weekly price chart for a local bullish trend that has been developing since the end of 2018. The pandemic is not leaving the agenda.