President Kennedy's Secretary of Defense, Robert McNamara, set out in a speech to the American Bar Foundation a theory of flexible nuclear response. Dependency theory thrived amidst a backlash against economic imperialism yet withered in a globalized era of free trade and foreign investment. One fact that clearly emerges from Greens book is that policymakers seemed to correctly understand the dynamics of Cold War nuclear deterrence. Confronted with these dilemmas, the Bush administration has turned to what it calls preemption, but what is actually prevention. Russian outages and record-high prices threaten a winter of discontent.. Is Europe set for its worst wildfire season? On the technical side, Green and others have provided persuasive evidence that the United States could have limited significant damage to itself in a nuclear exchange. Consequently, the traditional rules of strategy applied: Security policy could only rest on credible threats (i.e., those that it made sense to carry out). In the 19th century, the writers Wilkie Collins (opens in new tab) and Jules Verne (opens in new tab) both speculated that the industrialization of warfare would make armies so powerful that the countries that fielded them would be locked in a perpetual stalemate. Of course, this objective was not sensible, but MAD proponents argued that was the point: The outcome would be so dreadful that both sides would be deterred from starting a nuclear war or even taking actions that might lead to it. Heres why you can trust us. India and Pakistan remains a potential flashpoint. Former Prime Minister Imran Khans party won a surprise victory in a by-election in the countrys biggest province. In addition to the development of increasingly ambitious strategies, one additional pattern of interest emerged in U.S. Thank you for signing up to Live Science. Visit our corporate site (opens in new tab). I think that the answer is more political than technical. It wasnt just a question of damage-limiting; I believedand still dothat a counterforce doctrine and posture of sufficient scope would persuade the Soviet Union that it could not count on achieving a military victory in a nuclear exchange. Consider the following counterfactuals: Would U.S. nuclear weapons policy have looked the same if the United States had not attempted to extend deterrence to Europe? Green convincingly demonstrates that the superpowers were buying none of it. Mutual assured destruction kept the two Cold War superpowers in check but offers little assurance to nations threatened by suicide terrorists. With ports cut off, the world is going hungry. Jones. Throughout much of the Cold War, U.S. declaratory policy (i.e., what policymakers said in public) closely approximated MAD. Economics. This observation contradicts the consensus in the scholarly literature, which holds that the nuclear revolution made the arms race unnecessary (and not really all that dangerous). But the end of the Cold War hasn't removed the nuclear warheads. My informed hunch tells me that there is much that Greens argument can explain about the periods of history that preceded and followed that decade. The stability that MAD was supposed to provide actually would have allowed U.S. adversaries to use force below the nuclear level whenever it was to their advantage to do so. If Green is right, and I think he is, his work calls into question the alleged benefits that should arise when nuclear-armed powers live under the condition of mutually assured destruction. However, a nuclear war could begin if the Indian government launched a large military incursion aimed at destroying terrorist camps or punishing Pakistan for supporting these groups. You will receive a verification email shortly. "In the Cold War there was a small risk of utter nuclear catastrophe," says Paul Rogers, professor of peace studies at Bradford University. According to MAD, trying to protect yourself is destabilizing because it threatens the other side. For instance, a 2012 study by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists found that just 100 nuclear detonations of the size that struck Hiroshima and Nagasaki would usher in a planetary nuclear winter, which would drop temperatures lower than they were in the Little Ice Age, Live Science previously reported.).
But according to Britannica (opens in new tab), the longer phrase "mutual assured destruction" was coined by an opponent of the policy, American military analyst Donald Brennan, who argued that it did little to secure U.S. defense interests in the long-term. Fifty years ago this week the idea of mutually assured nuclear destruction was outlined in a major speech. Similarly, from the Office of Net Assessment the highly influential Defense Department strategist Andrew Marshall commissioned and conducted studies to investigate how the United States could most effectively compete with the Soviet Union. But the threat of nuclear annihilation remains real. The fear of impending attack became a part of everyday conversation. After finishing this masterly work, I am left with three main thoughts. And the improved accuracy of U.S. forces would offset Soviet advantages in land-based ICBMs. As a result, we should expect competition and crises, rather than the stable world predicted by the theory of the nuclear revolution. In 1984 President Ronald Reagan famously said in a radio soundcheck: "My fellow Americans, I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. And the danger in any of these regional disputes is that the US and Russia get sucked in and what began as a war between two neighbours goes global. Neither country could limit damage to itself in any appreciable way, no matter what combination of offensive or defensive counterforce capabilities it threw at the problem. As Nitze reflected toward the end of the Cold War, Although some argued that nuclear weapons would radically change the nature of warfare, responsible officials did not hold this view.. The perception of U.S. NATO allies of the credibility of the American deterrent, for example, seems to have also played an important role in shaping American policy. The Club of Romes doomsday prophecies of global starvation are now starved for credibility. The Revolution that Failed is quite good at illustrating the U.S. technological improvements that were made during the 1970s, which gave Washington the ability to significantly limit damage to itself in a nuclear exchange. When the United States emerged as the dominant military power, defense became a much more attractive option than deterrence. Yet, for all these efforts, it is highly probable that a conventional war in Europe or, even more likely, the limited use of nuclear weapons would have prompted a full-scale nuclear war that would have resulted in mutual destruction. But U.S. allies, West Germany in particular, convinced America that the SS-20 demanded an urgent American counter. All of us who share an interest in nuclear weapons policy should read it. Two decades after the Cold War ended, there are still more than 17,000 nuclear warheads around the world, the majority still pointing back and forth between the US and Russia. Even if Pakistan were able to destroy Indias nuclear stockpile, Indias armed forces could still dismember Pakistan. For instance, it would be suicidal for Pakistan to attack India with nuclear weapons. Put another way, both the balance of interests and the balance of power are hard to measure. U.S. officials displayed great sensitivity to the concerns of Washingtons allies. Eight months after McNamara's speech the notion of MAD was almost put to the test by the Cuban Missile Crisis. On the set of Stanley Kubrick's Dr Strangelove or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb, Protesters in Khrushchev and Kennedy masks in 1962, 'We've spent years preparing our Comic-Con costumes' Video, 'We've spent years preparing our Comic-Con costumes', New telescope catches dead suns smashing together, Russia 'looting' steel bound for Europe and UK, US reports first polio case in nearly a decade, Ex-policeman jailed for George Floyd killing role, Chappelle show cancelled over joke controversy, Sri Lankan forces raid anti-government camp. (Israel is deliberately ambiguous about whether it has them.). Throughout his career, Nitze dismissed the deterrent value of MAD. However, other factors than the ones identified in The Revolution that Failed might have contributed to these shifting estimates. On the other hand, it speaks to doubts that I have long harbored about the theory of the nuclear revolution. And according to a 2018 scientific study in the journal Safety (opens in new tab), that's enough to wipe out almost all of us. He has also written for the BBC, NBC News, National Geographic, Scientific American, Air & Space, and many others. If the United States could not have threatened to escalate a conflict by using nuclear weapons, then the Soviets would have had free rein to fight and win a conventional war in Europe. Cold War nuclear weapons policy: a cycle of optimism and pessimism about the state of the nuclear competition. Most of them are held by the United States and Russia, which have about 4,000 warheads each. After the 1960s, mutual assured destruction was the main nuclear doctrine the stated military principle of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union in the late 20th century. Marxism evolved from the primordial swamp of the Industrial Revolution but lies gasping for relevance after the collapse of the Soviet Union. FOREIGN POLICY has invited six notable minds to sort through the dustbin of history and share what they found. Thus the true philosophy of nuclear deterrence was established. In 1962, the concept of mutually assured destruction started to play a major part in the defence policy of the US. Although no one has tested the concept of mutual assured destruction by nuclear weapons, it seems to have prevented war between superpowers since nuclear weapons were invented in the 1940s. Dependency theory thrived amidst a backlash against economic imperialism yet withered in a globalized era of free trade and foreign investment. The threat of terrorism also makes defense preferable to deterrence. In certain scenarios, deterrence still works to some degree. He warned. MADs credibility plummeted even further during the last stages of the Cold War, as the Soviet military buildup convinced U.S. policymakers that the U.S.S.R. did not believe in MAD and was seeking nuclear advantage. Mutual assured destruction is the concept of nuclear superpowers being able to completely destroy each other. Or, for all their flaws, do they still have some relevance?
First, it seems like American policymakers got more right than wrong about the Cold War nuclear arms competition. The Soviet Unions invasion of Afghanistan and its African adventures revealed that MAD could not protect all U.S. interests. At the outset, Green provides a compelling strategic logic to explain why the United States and the Soviet Union pursued competitive nuclear weapons policies, including in the arena of arms control. Today the risk is not so much armageddon but a "slippery slope" of proliferation, he says. In theory, under mutual assured destruction, a nuclear attack by one superpower will be met with an overwhelming nuclear counterattack by their target using early warning systems, automated missiles, airborne nuclear bombs, and missile-armed hidden submarines. It is a clue to the eventual demise of mutual assured destruction (MAD) that the term was coined by a critic who sought to highlight how ludicrous the concept was. Tom writes mainly about science, space, archaeology, the Earth and the oceans. However, I do not think the country would have emerged unscathed. According to Darwinism, species that adapt to their environment thrive; those that fail to evolve face extinction. First, the bargaining advantages that the United States gained by escaping MAD might not have been very large because the costs of war remained extremely high. Rumsfeld argued that nuclear deterrence was difficult and not guaranteed, not even in MAD, if such a thing existed. International politics, his book posits, is not particularly stable in these circumstances. Critics like military strategists Herman Kahn and Colin Gray disagreed. This will lead to the complete destruction of both. This would assure effective deterrence. There are three implications that flow from this observation. published 18 March 22. My hunch is that nuclear competition would have still taken place contrary to the dictates of the theory of the nuclear revolution but that the arms race would have developed with significantly less intensity. To illustrate, I recall watching former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld debate proponents of the nuclear revolution about the nature of deterrence at a meeting of the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations. The threat of mutually assured destruction, he felt, lacked the credibility to deter a Soviet attack on NATO or the United States, a concern that was widely shared within the U.S. government and by its European allies.
According to Greens intricate argument, under these conditions we should expect states to compete, and to try to do so efficiently. These would permit the United States to exploit vulnerabilities in Soviet nuclear-armed bombers and submarines. Consider the debate over the vulnerability of the U.S. intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force, which Green describes in rich detail in his book.
And several inventors including Richard Gatling, the inventor of the Gatling gun (opens in new tab); Alfred Nobel, the inventor of dynamite; and Nikola Tesla, who hoped to develop particle beam weapons suggested their weapons would make annihilation of each side inevitable and put an end to war as a consequence. The other side of this coin is that an adversary who believes the United States is certain to attack will have nothing to lose by resorting to WMD. Proponents of the nuclear revolution mark this as the moment when the superpowers began to live in a state of mutually assured destruction. They could also not know with enough certainty if the Soviets agreed about the virtues of MAD. They also discount the ambiguity surrounding the political and territorial status quo. Thats why no U.S. president since Jimmy Carter has been willing to renounce missile defense, despite the clear lack of foolproof technology. The Club of Rome's doomsday prophecies of global starvation are now starved for credibility. Cave explorers discover a 19th-century mining scene preserved like a time capsule, Does cardio kill gains? October 1962 Cuban missile crisis - US blockades Cuba after photos show Soviet missile bases being built there. The intense nuclear competition, therefore, was not caused by strategic circumstances, but rather by domestic pathologies, which prevented policymakers in both Washington and Moscow from learning to live with and love the bomb. Because nuclear arsenals remained secure, the cost of war was too high to risk competition. But MAD was a radical departure that trumped the conventional view of war. Instead, these mood swings confirm Greens theory about a delicate nuclear competition. May 1972 Salt 1 (Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty) is signed by Nixon and Brezhnev, March 1983 Strategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars) is proposed by Reagan, threatening to alter the Cold War balance of power, December 1987 Gorbachev and Reagan sign the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, December 1991 the Soviet Union formally breaks up, two years after the fall of the Berlin Wall. According to this view, which is still widely held today, the condition of MAD should have stabilized international politics, since the requirements of nuclear deterrence were easily met and nearly impossible to overturn. Experts in nuclear weapons arsenals estimate that the United States had more than 30,000 nuclear warheads in service at the height of the Cold War in the 1960s and 1970s, while the Soviet Union may have stockpiled more than 40,000 warheads by the late 1980s, according to BBC News (opens in new tab). The Revolution that Failed has persuaded me albeit in an uneasy way that the United States might have escaped Armageddon in a nuclear exchange with the Soviet Union. Some have speculated Saudi Arabia could follow if Iran succeeds and it's been suggested that Israel already has more than 100 warheads. Applying the Theory Before and After the 1970s. In the UK a famous public information campaign Protect and Survive gave people advice on how to build a nuclear shelter. It is still in operation today between the nuclear forces of the U.S. and Russia, and experts have suggested that MAD is the reason that small states such as Israel are thought to have developed nuclear missiles. Taken together with advances in communication, surveillance, and precision, America fielded an impressive array of counterforce capabilities. New York, To illustrate the causal mechanisms of his argument, Green assembles an impressive amount of archival evidence from the 1970s. But it also led to periods of the Cold War when both the U.S. and the Soviet Union spent huge amounts of money to develop nuclear weapons and the methods to use them. The authorities tried to offer reassurance. Editors Note: This is an excerpt from Book Review Roundtable: The Revolution that Failed from our sister publication, the Texas National Security Review. What's the hottest temperature the human body can endure? And adversaries could deliver nuclear weapons in a variety of other ways, such as by airplanes, ships, and cargo containers.
These advantages translated into a preference for qualitative arms races. The Pakistanis might decide, in turn, to use nuclear weapons on their own soil against invading forces. Asian values -- fashionable when South Korea and Thailand were economic success stories and the West was mired in recession -- lost their luster following the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Theorists of the nuclear revolution discount the uncertainty about the survivability of nuclear arsenals that can arise with improvements in military technology. A defensive strategy that could achieve even 99 percent efficiency is hard to imagine short of incredible worldwide cooperation, expense, and sacrifice of civil liberties. Brendan Rittenhouse Green has provided a very compelling answer to these questions in his creative new book, The Revolution that Failed: Nuclear Competition, Arms Control, and the Cold War.